Over at Bubba’s, someone made the observation that while Clinton was in office, that unemployment decreased; and while Bush has been in office unemployment has risen. Of course, this observation was meant to credit Clinton with creating jobs (which is crap) and Bush with losing them (again, crap).
I don’t think that the government can control the economy. If it could, we’d have no recessions or depressions. But we do. The government can slightly impact the economy by adding or removing certain barriers at its disposal, such as taxes, fines, subsidies and a limited number of other things. That is, in a nutshell, my position in this argument.
Barry B. makes the claim that when Clinton was in office, he was responsible for the phenomenal unemployment rate. I asked Barry to prove it. Obviously, he can’t because it didn’t happen. The overwhelming majority of jobs were created as a result of a technological revolution. The internet revolution and IT consulting employed a great number of people and stock prices rose and everyone was happy. Clinton was, of course, happy to be coincidentally occupying the office of the president about this time. If Clinton was the reason, why then did unemployment and the markets start tanking at the end of his tenure? Because the internet revolution and IT consulting went belly up and did so hard and fast. Therefore, he couldn’t control it.
After asking Barry to prove it, Digby chimes in to tell me that my debate skills are minimal because all I did was tell Barry to prove me wrong.
My problem with this is that I don’t have to prove that there is no cause and effect. But Barry has to support his contention of cause and effect to prove his point. Things coincidentally happen all the time without one being the cause of the other. Right now, I am typing at my computer. I am also drinking a beer. These two things just happen to be occurring at this moment almost completely without regard to one another. I therefore can’t state drinking beer caused typing at my computer; nor that typing at my computer causes me to drink beer. I think for a scientific fact to be valid (if I’m recalling high school science correctly) that it must be absolutely proven. We call this positive assurance, which means something is proven to cause some other thing. Negative assurance is essentially stating that nothing has been brought to our attention that disproves what we think is the effect of this particular cause. This is the basis for theories, not facts.
Barry can (and does) theorize about the cause of employment but it is not a hard and fast fact. So, we will disagree until he proves that Clinton caused unemployment to significantly decrease. Regardless, the burden of proof is on him.
And no, I don’t think the current turnaround in the economy is attributable to Bush.