Point – Counter Point
Kevin writes: Europe Gets Iran to Allow Inspectors.
I retort: You don’t suppose it has anything to do with that little firefight going on next door, do ya?
Remember, I do this to entertain me, not you.
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October 23rd, 2003 at 11:08 am
No, not really. Honestly, considering that the US is having a hard time nailing Iraq down, and the fact that North Korea thrwos a tantrum whenever world focus shisfts form them for more than a week, I don’t think that Iran is worried about an invasion right now, or in the near future. There were two routes they could have taken: build the weapons, or not. Considering how Bush ignored N. Korea but went after Iraq, a lot of nations may have come to the conclusion that the only way to stay safe is to get nuclear weapons. Iran made nosises like that earlier. it seems that the EU has convinced Tehran to go the other route. I HOPE this means that the “moderates” have gotten back some influence, but that will remain to be seen.
October 23rd, 2003 at 11:16 am
I don’t think the mullahs are concerned about how things are going in Iraq now. I think they are concerned that saddam was deposed in about an hour and a half.
October 23rd, 2003 at 11:20 am
Exactly. Since Iranians are restless, decapitate the leadership, and let the pro-American Iranian youth do the rest. We wouldn’t have to invade and hold the territory, just pound the crap out of them.
October 23rd, 2003 at 11:37 am
“I think they are concerned that saddam was deposed in about an hour and a half”
Well, no, becasue there is now a much reduced chance that it could happen to them – particulalrly considering the difference in motivation of the respective armed forces (there revolution may be tottering, but there is no real love for the US in Iran. The Shah is still remmebered, after all. Every interview with a disseident inseide and out of Iran that I have ever seen says basically: support us, but don’t invade) and the size of the country. By being tied down in Iraq, the US is actually less firgihetneing to most dictators.
The reason that the EU was important in this is that the EU still has reserves of armed forces. If the EU became convinced that Iran was a threat, a NATO led invasion, or a NATO deployment in Iraq to free up troops for a US led invasion completely changes that equation. I imagine that point was made during the negotiations.
October 23rd, 2003 at 11:38 am
Oh, one more thing: I am not sure that death scares the mullahs that much. They are religious fanatics after all.
October 23rd, 2003 at 11:42 am
Death, maybe not. Loss of power, absolutely.
October 23rd, 2003 at 1:18 pm
Kevin, may I ask if you have a military background. This statement makes me believe you don’t.
-The reason that the EU was important in this is that the EU still has reserves of armed forces-
Those forces are shells. With the exception of the UK, central European armies have been devoid of meaningful numbers, equipment, and espirit de corps. Having been in Bosnia for over a year with my reserve unit, they are barely above police officers.(the UN bluehats are even more of a joke)
Most importantly, just how would these powerful forces get to the gulf? The EU collectively or individually lacks the airlift or sealift ability to transit their forces. How long does it take the US to deploy to the gulf? You might as well triple that time to transport a Pan Euro contingent. Provided of course, you get them to agree on a command structure, rules of engagement, that precious UN sanction that they would clearly want…yada yada yada.
As for nations considering us less of a threat for being in Iraq, that’s also specious. If you are Syria, you have Israel flying over Damascus with impunity and more heavy armor in Iraq than that region has seen since the last time. Does Iran, you think, fear us more in a decap strike or fear a feckless group of Euro appeasers that lacked the guts to stop Milosevic in their back yard?
October 23rd, 2003 at 5:46 pm
Drake
Not to be rude, but every single person I have known who served in Bosnia had nothing but praise for the European troops there. Obviously, your milleage may vary. And its nice to see a right winger give Clinton credit for stopping Milosovich like the feckless Bush I was unwilling to do 😉
The simple fact is that the troops in Iraq are useless for projecting power at the present time. They scare no one, becasue they are having to spend their time trying to consolidate Iraq – and an invasion of Iran would likely incite the Shi’ia in Iraq, making the situation even more difficult. At the moment, the US has a limited abality to project ground force. To answer your question, the Iranians don’t fear us at all – becasue they have seen the problems in Iraq, up close. The only way that the troops in Iraq are a threat to Iran is if Iraq becomes stablaized OR other nations, like NATO members for example, provide enough troops to free American troops to invade – or participate in the invasion. Airstikes would almost certianly not bring down the mullahs – thats going to take ground forces.
SayUncle
But again, the US isn’t really in a postion to take them out, not until Iraq becomes more stabalaized. Hence, the importance of the Europeans. With Euro troops in Iraq, or in an invasion, the equation is different, and I think that probably played a large role in Iranian thinking. And I am not sure that the mullahs would see the situation any differently than the Taliban do roght now: they were divinly appointed, and, at some point, God will help them drive the infidels away. The Taliban show no signs of being demoralaized. Thats one of the problems with dealing with religious fanatics, espetially ones who believe in martyrdom – they just don’t scare.
October 27th, 2003 at 11:08 am
Oh certainly Clinton should be praised for it. Let us all remember he did so without the approval of the UN to do so. However, even Bush I should not have had to handle a local problem the Euros should have handled themselves.
Yes my mileage is different. I think the German, French, and other central European armies are quite pathetic. The Poles and Hungarians have really good specialized units though.
That still doesn’t begin to address that those Euro nations have no ability to transport troops to Iran. Remember at the height of her power in WW2, Germany couldn’t even produce enough transports to invade England across the channel, much less 2 oceans, two seas, a guld and a canal.