Correlation ≠ Causation
Unless it’s convenient. I wonder if the Bush Recession will be renamed?
The U.S. economy shrank in the third quarter of 2000, the government said on Wednesday in revisions to official figures that showed America was on the brink of recession months earlier than previously thought.
The sweeping changes by the Commerce Department also downgraded the expansion that followed the 2001 slump, albeit only slightly.
However, the revisions were not applied to third-quarter 2003 data — leaving the most recent measure of growth unchanged at a swift annual clip of 8.2 percent. The next reading of third-quarter growth is scheduled for later in December.
Until now, statisticians at Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis believed the economy did not start shrinking until early 2001. But extensive revisions dating back to 1929, incorporating both improved statistics and changes to definitions, revealed a contraction in gross domestic product, or GDP, in the July-to-September quarter of 2000.
I doubt it. It’s no more Bush’s fault than it is Clinton’s. The government has very, very limited economic controls and they don’t impact the economy as much as people like to think.
December 10th, 2003 at 4:06 pm
So many folks seem to have forgotten the debates in 2000. One of the topics they discussed was the shaky economy! If it was already ailing, why wouldn’t the Clintron get the credit? Because the Dems love to rewrite history, of course.
December 10th, 2003 at 6:12 pm
W. seems more than happy to take credit for the recent rebound, though.
It will be interesting to see his reaction when the short-term effects of the latest round of tax rebate checks wears off.
You do have to give Junior credit for getting his recession out of the way early in his term, though.
December 10th, 2003 at 1:41 pm
There Was No 1548 Recession
Say Uncle posted on a revision to the official figures relating the start of the Bush recession. I thought it curious they are still revising data from three years ago. Then I read further: Until now, statisticians at Commerce’s Bureau…