While I personally think that H1N1 is bigger than we think it is (on account that the CDC are the only ones who can confirm cases of H1N1 http://tinyurl.com/ck8856) I’m concerned that when the “big one” really does hit, that people will be so desensitized to the media’s fear tactics that they won’t give it the attention it deserves.
The cited author doesn’t get the difference between transmissibility and virulence. It currently doesn’t seem to be more deadly than a normal seasonal flu (although 1918 shows you can’t depend on it staying that way), but it’s a pandemic flu type.
It hasn’t been out there before and doesn’t seem to have any cross resistance with prior H1N1 strains. Human or pig (e.g. Alberta), unless it dies out (possibly but appears to be unlikely), you’re likely to get it. Right now (absent it getting more lethal), the big concern is too many people getting it at once. Even with normal virulence, if too many people get it too quickly doctors and hospitals will get swamped.
Hold your nose at the web site (and don’t read the comments!) and check out H1N1: Why Do Schools Close, And When Do They Open? for more details; look at the graph with the different height and length curves.
They should call it The Sweeps Flu. Because that’s what it’s really about: all the television news outlets start overhyping this story to create a panic just in time for May sweeps so that everyone tunes in, pumping up their ratings so they can charge more for advertising.
May 4th, 2009 at 11:32 am
While I personally think that H1N1 is bigger than we think it is (on account that the CDC are the only ones who can confirm cases of H1N1 http://tinyurl.com/ck8856) I’m concerned that when the “big one” really does hit, that people will be so desensitized to the media’s fear tactics that they won’t give it the attention it deserves.
May 4th, 2009 at 4:54 pm
The cited author doesn’t get the difference between transmissibility and virulence. It currently doesn’t seem to be more deadly than a normal seasonal flu (although 1918 shows you can’t depend on it staying that way), but it’s a pandemic flu type.
It hasn’t been out there before and doesn’t seem to have any cross resistance with prior H1N1 strains. Human or pig (e.g. Alberta), unless it dies out (possibly but appears to be unlikely), you’re likely to get it. Right now (absent it getting more lethal), the big concern is too many people getting it at once. Even with normal virulence, if too many people get it too quickly doctors and hospitals will get swamped.
Hold your nose at the web site (and don’t read the comments!) and check out H1N1: Why Do Schools Close, And When Do They Open? for more details; look at the graph with the different height and length curves.
May 4th, 2009 at 11:22 pm
They should call it The Sweeps Flu. Because that’s what it’s really about: all the television news outlets start overhyping this story to create a panic just in time for May sweeps so that everyone tunes in, pumping up their ratings so they can charge more for advertising.