Policy wish lists disguised as science
5 Responses to “Policy wish lists disguised as science”
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November 17th, 2014 at 7:48 pm
So… are they saying that the *existence* of a carry laws causes people… without carry permits to commit more crimes?
Okay then….
November 17th, 2014 at 9:55 pm
It’s not a new study either. It was an NBER working paper 2 years ago.
There are two things that stand out in the extended abstract available online. The first is that the reported estimate is sensitive to the specifications used, and is never statistically significant at more than a 10 percent level. That means that they really haven’t moved very far from the NRC report’s position that we don’t know what’s going on. (The data still suck.)
The second is the rape result. Somewhere around 5-6 percentof rapes involve a firearm. Given the poor qualityof their data, RTC expansions would have to have a ttremendouseffect
November 17th, 2014 at 10:01 pm
(I accidentally hit submit)
The increase in the carrying of firearms would have to have a huge effect on a small fraction of rapes to show up in their data. Otherwise, this result suggests they’re missing some other trend in crime that could be driving all of their results.
In other words, we’re back to not knowing what’s going on because he data suck.
November 18th, 2014 at 2:12 am
This guy.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/14/right-to-carry-laws-crime_n_6160414.html?fb_comment_id=fbc_754557354623122_754700767942114_754700767942114#f3c1f193eaf845c
has it right.
November 18th, 2014 at 2:43 pm
A high school friend posted the link on facebook looking for my opinion. Off hand I thought, gee you can carry a gun in every state now so any increase in crime will be blamed on RTC. Then I realized that wait, you can carry a gun in every state AND crime has gone down incredible amounts pretty much everywhere. So, they must have done some nifty data manipulation to reach this conclusion. Turns out, I was right. They basically remove all crime associated with drugs from their baseline and only look at specific crimes in specific areas (which actually still doesn’t even return the result they claim but hey what’s reality have to do with anything: they are Stanford researchers with Bloomberg Money and the Presidents Backing they can say whatever they want and get positive press).