One-Upmanship
I’ve pondered this post a bit, deciding to not post it. I’ve reconsidered as it may bring attention to what could happen. Al Qaeda, in essence, must have some sort of pride thing. They have a history of one-upmanship. The three attacks attributed to them (that I know of) have been successively more severe.
The 1993 WTC bombing. I have read accounts that this was an attempt to bring catastrophic losses but the bomb wasn’t big enough. The other thing I have heard (put on your foily hats) is that the trucks were actually loaded with sarin gas. Sarin, though easy to make, is heavy and difficult to distribute. The plan, I’ve been told, was that the truck was loaded with it and backed up to a major intake unit of the ventilation system to essentially suck the sarin up the building. The people who have told me this are friends who worked as government agents and in law enforcement. I have no reason to doubt them, since both independently mentioned this to me, without the other knowing. And they worked for separate agencies. Later in 1993, others with alleged ties to Al Qaeda were arrested while making bombs and they planned to take out other major NY landmarks and kill Senator D’Amato.
2000 USS Cole Bombing. A bit bigger (and more gutsy) than the 1993 WTC bomb.
And, of course, September 11 was bigger.
Al Qaeda has a history of increasing the amount of damage with each attack. This could be good or bad for the US. The likelihood of something bigger than 9/11 is probably small with new security measures and such. But if they do one-up 9/11, it will be absolutely devastating.
But Al Qaeda has not engaged in small attacks on US soil. It would not be difficult for a terrorist nut job to waltz into a Wal-Mart with an AK47 and a bomb strapped to his chest. Kill a few people and detonate the bomb when the cops arrive. If that occurred, people wouldn’t shop at Wal-Mart for months. It’d hurt us. I tend to think Al Qaeda will not engage in this type of thing since their MO seems to be doing something bigger than the last one.
I think that maybe in the future Al Qaeda will either realize that the likelihood of successfully launching a massive act of terrorism is small and may resort to smaller, localized attacks to put people on edge. Remember, the sniper in DC was small scale but had people terrified. Or they may successfully pull off another big one.
So, that’s my $0.02 on potential terrorism. The reason for my hesitation in posting this is I’d hate to read of smaller attacks on US soil and somehow thing I inspired the idea. However, it’s safe to say that my audience wouldn’t do such a thing.
September 18th, 2003 at 5:11 pm
I’ll post this here, rather than my blog. Several points to make. The first WTC attack might have worked. Engineers determined not too many years ago that had the bombs been placed differently they might have taken out the towers. It goes to show that the terrorists aren’t as smart as we fear.
The USS Cole happened because the guards on US warships got lax about keeping the small boats away. Locals keeps sailing out hoping for generosity from the wealthy Americans, or to do quick business. Armed guards on the ships would chase them away. They got lax and the terrorists watching the ships noticed. So they attacked. They had been planning just for that eventuality.
The second WTC happened because the first one failed. In the rest of the world, especially the Arab nutjob world, the WTC is a symbol of American globalisation, a hated one. That’s why they tried to hit it in 93. The failure then was like a challenge to try again and get it right.
But the biggest thing is that the terrorists don’t *think like Americans*! They think like Arab Muslim extremist fundamentalists out to make a point. Remember when rumors got out around Christmas ’01 about a possible attack on shopping malls? It would have taken only *one* attack and Christmas would have been hosed for that year. No one would have gone near a mall for a long, long time. It would have wrecked the economy for a long time to come. You and I know that, but it wouldn’t have occured to your garden-variety Arab Muslim terrorist.
Same with dropping some bioweapon into the middle of a college football game. You could take out up to 80,000 people in one evil go; more if its an infectious disease with some period of latency. It would have had a profound impact on America and, again, killed a whole industry. You and I know this, but Arab Muslim fundamentalist terrorists don’t think about college football. It’s decadent Americanism.
We are, to some extent, lucky that they don’t understand us and they are proud of that fact. It has saved us from some truly, truly horrible attacks.
September 18th, 2003 at 9:25 pm
I’m not so sure. I’d argue that the 93 WTC bombing was “bigger” than the Cole bombing, because it happened on US Soil.
September 18th, 2003 at 9:40 pm
Hmm, i dropped this hair. It seems to be split. Glad it’s not a hare 🙂
September 18th, 2003 at 11:07 pm
Friends and I have discussed the Walmart scenario that you describe. Having seen the hysteria generated by a very few anthrax letters to specific lawmakers (there were people across the country afraid to open junk mail) I agree – it wouldn’t take much to make people change behavior. On the other hand, it would be a boon to internet stores.
September 19th, 2003 at 11:35 am
You mean the USS Cole attack was not a plot byt Hillary to prevent absantee ballots from reaching Florida?
August 10th, 2006 at 10:19 am
[…] Well, I said something three years ago that this reminded me of: But Al Qaeda has not engaged in small attacks on US soil. It would not be difficult for a terrorist nut job to waltz into a Wal-Mart with an AK47 and a bomb strapped to his chest. Kill a few people and detonate the bomb when the cops arrive. If that occurred, people wouldn’t shop at Wal-Mart for months. It’d hurt us. […]